High-quality global climate forecast models are based on high- and mid-latitude geographies typical of the European and North American continents. And they are the ones who generate the weather forecasts, traditionally distributed around the world.
The problem is that in tropical zones, such as West Africa, the climate does not work the same way as in high and mid-latitude geographies, which generates recurring errors, especially in rainfall forecasts.
This is because the vast majority of tropical rains have their genesis in convective processes, which are not well represented by meteorological models optimized for climate systems of mid-latitudes.
Rains are more difficult to predict in tropical regions due to their random and small-scale nature.
Large-scale global climate patterns make it difficult to identify small-scale phenomena that are frequent in tropical regions.
Networks of ground meteorological stations are scarce in tropical regions.
In comparing accuracy levels, the least accurate day 7 of ignitia is equivalent to the most accurate day 1 of its competitors.
ignitia is twice as accurate as global models, with an accuracy and reliability rate of 84%
Global models are right only 38% of the time. This means they are wrong more than half the time
Check out our comparison and learn why ignitia has the best climate model for tropical regions.
The accumulation of technical and operational know-how, experience, and recognition of regional weather patterns, constitute a cornerstone in ignitia’s ability to provide a quality service and high resolution.
The resolutions of the global model are limited and can hardly see the day-to-day climatic variability of the tropics, such as high and low pressure, air mass advances and others.
This makes it difficult to predict these events in advance and ends up resulting in erroneous forecasts of temperature, humidity, wind, and distribution of frontal rains.
ignitia’s proprietary high-resolution system makes it possible to take full advantage of the numerical prediction model optimized for the tropics, which runs on supercomputers with advanced probabilistic, incorporating machine learning techniques adapted to various timescale predictions.
Contact us to request further information about the ignitia model, demonstrations, and comparisons.
